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helmut​ norpoth
Helmut Norpoth Professor Political Science College of Arts and Sciences

Contact Information

N-731 Social and Behavioral Scien

Stony Brook, 11794

631/632-7640

Expertise

election forecasting presidential politics election campaigns voting public opinion wartime politics economic voting partisan realignments

Biography

Helmut Norpoth is co-author of  The American Voter Revisited, covering the images of presidential candidates, party identification, and why Americans turn out to vote.  He has also written a book about public reactions to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, especially her economic and foreign policies.  Norpoth has designed models to forecast elections in the U.S., Britain, and Germany. His Primary Model correctly predicted Obama's re-election as early as February of 2012 and correctly predicted that Donald Trump would be the next President of the United States. 

Education

  • PhD and MA, The University of Michigan
  • BA, The Free University of Berlin

Publications

  1. Author Article PS - Political Science and Politics War and Momentum: The 2008 Presidential Nominations 2011 44 3 536 - 543
  2. Author Article Electoral Studies Yes, Prime Minister: The key to forecasting British elections 2011 30 2 258 - 263
  3. Author Article International Journal of Forecasting The chancellor model: Forecasting German elections 2010 26 1 42 - 53
  4. Author Article Political Research Quarterly Balance or Dominance? Party Competition in Congressional Politics 2010 63 2 316
  5. Author Article PS - Political Science and Politics THE PRIMARY MODEL IN 2008 2009 42 1 20
  6. Author Article Electoral Studies From Eisenhower to Bush: Perceptions of candidates and parties 2009 28 4 523 - 532
  7. Author Book 2008 5
  8. Author Article PS - Political Science and Politics On the Razor's Edge: The Forecast of the Primary Model 2008 41 4
  9. Author Article Political Behavior Mission Accomplished: The Wartime Election of 2004 2007 29 2 175
  10. Author Article Electoral Studies Electoral myth and reality: Realignments in American politics 2007 26 2 392 - 403
  11. Author Article British Journal of Political Science The PM and the Pendulum: Dynamic Forecasting of British Elections 2007 37 1 71
  12. Author Article Politische Vierteljahresschrift Mission Accomplished: Die Wiederwahl von George W. Bush 2005 46 1 3
  13. Author Article PS - Political Science and Politics As New Hampshire Goes (in January) . 2005 38 1 37 - 37
  14. Author Article Politische Vierteljahresschrift 2005 46 4 682
  15. Author Article The Journal of Politics Consumer Demand for Election News: The Horserace Sells 2004 66 1 157 - 175
  16. Author Article Electoral Studies Forecasting British elections: a dynamic perspective 2004 23 2 297 - 305
  17. Author Article Political Science and Politics From Primary to General Election: A Forecast of the Presidential Vote 2004 37 4 737 - 740
  18. Author Article The Journal of Politics Rejoinder 1996 58 3 802
  19. Author Article The Journal of Politics Presidents and the Prospective Voter 1996 58 3 776
  20. Author Article British Journal of Political Science The Making of a More Partisan Electorate in West Germany 1984 14 1 53
  21. Author Article The Journal of Politics The Atom Besieged: Extraparliamentary Dissent in France and Germany. By Dorothy Nelkin and Michael Pollak. (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 1981. Pp. xi, 235. $17.50.) 1982 44 3 908

Courses

Term Role Course ID Description
Spring 2018 Primary Instructor POL 318 Voters and Elections
Spring 2018 Primary Instructor POL 336 US Foreign Policy
Spring 2018 Primary Instructor POL 459 Write Effectively
Spring 2018 Primary Instructor POL 475 Undergrad Teachng Practicum I
Spring 2018 Primary Instructor POL 476 Undergrad Teachng Practicum II
Spring 2018 Primary Instructor POL 487 Directed Research
Spring 2018 Primary Instructor POL 496 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 287 Intro Rsrch in Political Sci
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 318 Voters and Elections
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 336 US Foreign Policy
Spring 2017 Secondary Instructor POL 390 Topics in Political Science
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 447 Directed Readings in Pol Sci
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 447 Directed Readings in Pol Sci
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 458 Speak Effectively Before/Aud
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 459 Write Effectively
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 475 Undergrad Teachng Practicum I
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 476 Undergrad Teachng Practicum II
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 487 Directed Research
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 487 Directed Research
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 495 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Spring 2017 Primary Instructor POL 496 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Summer 2017 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Summer 2017 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 287 Intro Rsrch in Political Sci
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 317 American Election Campaigns
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 459 Write Effectively
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 475 Undergrad Teachng Practicum I
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 476 Undergrad Teachng Practicum II
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 487 Directed Research
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 487 Directed Research
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 495 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Fall 2017 Primary Instructor POL 496 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Spring 2016 Primary Instructor POL 336 US Foreign Policy
Spring 2016 Primary Instructor POL 447 Directed Readings in Pol Sci
Spring 2016 Primary Instructor POL 459 Write Effectively
Spring 2016 Primary Instructor POL 475 Undergrad Teachng Practicum I
Spring 2016 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Spring 2016 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Spring 2016 Primary Instructor POL 496 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Spring 2016 Primary Instructor POL 617 Electoral Behavior
Summer 2016 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2016 Primary Instructor POL 287 Intro Rsrch in Political Sci
Fall 2016 Primary Instructor POL 317 American Election Campaigns
Fall 2016 Primary Instructor POL 444 Experiential Learning
Fall 2016 Primary Instructor POL 459 Write Effectively
Fall 2016 Primary Instructor POL 475 Undergrad Teachng Practicum I
Fall 2016 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2016 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2016 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2016 Primary Instructor POL 495 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 318 Voters and Elections
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 336 US Foreign Policy
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 447 Directed Readings in Pol Sci
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 447 Directed Readings in Pol Sci
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 447 Directed Readings in Pol Sci
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 475 Undergrad Teachng Practicum I
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 487 Directed Research
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 495 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 496 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 597 Master's Paper in Public Polic
Spring 2015 Primary Instructor POL 699 Dissertation Resrch on Campus
Summer 2015 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2015 Primary Instructor POL 317 American Election Campaigns
Fall 2015 Primary Instructor POL 459 Write Effectively
Fall 2015 Primary Instructor POL 475 Undergrad Teachng Practicum I
Fall 2015 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2015 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2015 Primary Instructor POL 495 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Fall 2015 Primary Instructor POL 700 Dissertation off Campus Domest
Winter 2015 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Spring 2014 Primary Instructor POL 496 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Spring 2014 Primary Instructor POL 699 Dissertation Resrch on Campus
Fall 2014 Primary Instructor POL 313 Problems of Intnat'l Relations
Fall 2014 Primary Instructor POL 317 American Election Campaigns
Fall 2014 Primary Instructor POL 488 Internship
Fall 2014 Primary Instructor POL 699 Dissertation Resrch on Campus
Fall 2013 Primary Instructor POL 495 Sr Honors Proj in Pol Sci
Fall 2013 Primary Instructor POL 617 Electoral Behavior
Fall 2013 Primary Instructor POL 699 Dissertation Resrch on Campus

Professional Service

Service Title Date
Referee Numerous journals in my profession. 2011 - 2012
Service on Editorial Boards Acta Politica 2010 - 2011
Service on Editorial Boards Political Analysis 2010 - 2011
Service on Editorial Boards Sage Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences 2010 - 2011
Chair of an award committee of the Elections and Voting section of the American Political Science Review 2009 - 2010
Review Boards - Agency, Institute, Gov. National Science Foundation, review of National Election Study Proposal for the 2012 Presidential Election. 2009 - 2010
Service on Editorial Boards Political Analysis, yearbook of studies using quantitative methods 2009 - 2010
Service on Editorial Boards Sage series on quatitative methods, now numbering close to 200 monographs 2009 - 2010

University Service

Service Title Date
College/University Committee Academic Judiciary, Hearing Board: Decide cases of academic dishonesty on appeal. 2011 - 2012
College/University Committee College of Arts & Sciences Judiciary Committee, hearing board for academic dishonesty charges 2010 - 2011
College/University Committee Judiciary Committee (hearing board for accusations of academic dishonesty) 2009 - 2010

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News Highlights

April 28, 2017 What the Press Still Doesn’t Get About Trump Politico Magazine Read Article April 18, 2017 French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race Bloomberg Politics Read Article November 26, 2016 How demography proved Donald Trump’s destiny Newsday Read Article November 16, 2016 Trade Secrets From the Predictors Who Called a Trump Victory Politico Magazine Read Article November 13, 2016 Told you so: Some professors correctly predicted Trump win Associated Press Read Article
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