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Brian Colle


Division Head, Atmospheric Sciences



- University of Washington

Research Topics:

Extreme weather, coastal meteorology, weather forecasting, regional climate change

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  • Bio/Research


    The  COastal  Meteorological  And  Prediction ( COMAP) group focuses on improving the understanding and forecasting of extreme weather in the coastal margins of North America. The group investigates severe convective storms, extratropical and tropical storms, low-level jets and sea breezes, precipitation bands and microphysics, orographic flows, and heavy precipitation using conventional data, field observations, and numerical models (e.g., Weather Research and Forecasting). The WRF is also nested within global climate models to understand how extreme weather may change during the next century. He also utilizes high-resolution atmosphere and ocean models for storm surge, fire weather, and offshore wind power resource assessments and forecasting.

    For more information, please visit the  COMAP web page.

  • Publications


    Publications (since 2008)


    Neager, A.,   B.A. Colle,  N. Zhou, and A. Molthan, 2020: Evaluating warm and cold rain processes in cloud microphysical schemes using OLYMPEX field data.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 2163-2190

    Leonardo, N.M., and   B.A. Colle, 2020: An investigation of large along-track errors in North Atlantic tropical cyclone ECMWF ensemble forecasts.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 457-476.


    Ge, K., and   B.A. Colle, 2019: Multi-decadal trends in tropical cyclone intensity and evolution characteristics for two north-Atlantic sub-basins.  J. Geophys. Res., 124, 9893-9904.

    Connelly, R., and   B.A. Colle, 2019: Validation of snow multi-bands in the comma head of a cyclone using a 40-member ensemble.  Wea. Forecasting34, 1343-1363.

    Gonzales, J., L. Ortiz, B.K. Smith, N. Devineni,   B. Colle, J. Booth, A. Ravindranath, L. Rivera, R. Horton, K. Towey, Y. Kushnir, and D. Manley (2019), Chapter 2: New Methods for Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Droughts, Third Report, New York City Panel on Climate Change.  Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences1439, 30-70.

    Orton, P., N. Lin, V. Gornitz,   B.A. Colle, J. Booth, K. Feng, M. Buchanan, M. Oppenheimer, L. Patrick, (2019), Chapter 4: Coastal flooding, Third Report, New York City Panel on Climate Change.  Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences1439, 95-114.

    Lin, N., R. Marsooli, and   B.A. Colle, 2019: Storm surge return levels induced by the mid-to-late-21 st century extratropical cyclones in the northeastern United States.  Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-019-02431-8.

    Zheng, M., E. Chang, and   B.A. Colle: 2019: Evaluation of a multi-model ensemble for extratropical cyclones using a fuzzy clustering approach.   Wea. Forecasting,  147 1967-1987.

    Yang, K, and R.A. Davidson, B. Blanton,   B.A. Colle, K. Dresbeck, K. Desback, R. Kolar, and L Nozick, 2019: Hurricane evacuations in the face of uncertainty: Use of integrated models to support robust, adaptive, and repeated decision-making.  International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,  36 101093.

    Yang, K., R.A. Davidson, H. Vergara, R. Kolar, K. Dresback,   B.A. Colle, B. Blanton, T. Wachtendorf, J. Trivedi, and L. Nozick, 2019: Incorporating Inland Flooding into Hurricane Evacuation Support Modeling.  Natural Hazards,  96, 857-878.

    Schultz, D.M., L. Bosart,   B.A. Colle, H.C. Davies, C. Deardone, D. Keyser, O. Martius, P. Roebber, W. Steenburgh, H. Volkert, and A. Winters, 2019: Extratropical Cyclones: A Century of Research on Meteorology’s Centerpiece. A Century of Progress in Atmospheric and Related Sciences: Celebrating the American Meteorological Society Centennial,  Meteorological Monographs59, 16.1-16.56.


    Ganetis, S.A,  B.A. Colle, S.E. Yuter, and N.P. Hoban,  2018: Environmental conditions associated with observed snowband structures within Northeast U.S. winter storms. In press to  Mon. Wea. Rev.

    Zhang, Z, and  B.A. Colle, 2018: Extratropical cyclone and precipitation changes along the U.S. East coast using a downscaled climate modeling approach. In press to  J. Climate.

    Blanton, B., K. Dresback,  B.A. Colle, R. Kolar, H. Vergara, Y. Hong, N. Leonardo, R. Davidson, L. K. Nozick, and T. Wachtendorf, 2018: An Integrated scenario ensemble-based framework for hurricane evacuation modeling: Part 1 – Evacuation modeling.  Risk Analysis. 1111/risa.13004 .

    Davidson, R.A., B. Blanton,  B. A. Colle, R. Kolar, L. K. Nozick, T. Wachtendorf, K. Dresback, S. DeYoung, K.Y., Wenqi Yi, N. Leonardo, 2018: An Integrated scenario ensemble-based framework for hurricane evacuation modeling: Part 2 – Evacuation modeling.  Risk Analysis. 1111/risa.12990 .

    Erickson, M.J.,  B.A. Colle, and J. Charney, 2018: Evaluation and post-processing of ensemble fire weather predictions over the Northeast U.S.  J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim.,  57, 1135-1153.

    Korfe, N.G., and  B.A. Colle, 2018: Evaluation of cool season extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble for eastern North America and the western Atlantic Ocean.  Wea. Forecasting,  33 109-127 .

    Zheng, M., E. Chang,  B.A. Colle, Y. Luo, and Y. Zhu: 2017: Applying Fuzzy Clustering to a Multi-Model Ensemble for U.S. East Coast Winter Storms: Scenario Identification and Forecast Verification.  Wea. Forecasting,  32, 881-903.

    Leonardo N., and  B.A. Colle, 2017: Validation of multi-model ensemble forecasts on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks from 2008-2015,  Wea. Forecasting32, 2083-2101.


    Zhang, Z., and  B.A. Colle, 2017: Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation and Associated Processes During the 21st Century over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic Using a Cyclone Relative Approach.  J. Climate21, 8633-8656.

    Naeger, A.,  B.A. Colle, and A. Molthan, 2017: Evaluation of cloud microphysical schemes for a warm frontal snowband during the GPM Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx).  Mon. Wea. Rev.,  145, 4627-4650.

    Roberts, K.J.,  B.A. Colle, and N. Korfe, 2017: Impact of future changes in extratropical cyclones on coastal flooding at The Battery, NYC.  J. Appl. Meteor. Climo,  56 415-432.

    Yi, W., L. Noziak, R. Davidson, B. Blanton, and  B.A. Colle, 2017: Optimization of the Issuance of Evacuation Orders under Evolving Hurricane Conditions.  Transportation Research Part B95, 285-304.

    Colle, B.A., A. Neager, and A. Molthan, 2017: Structure and evolution of a warm frontal precipitation band during the GPM cold season precipitation experiment (GCPEx).  Mon. Wea. Rev.,  145 473-493.

    Yang, K, R. Davidson, L. Nozick, B. Blanton, and  B. A. Colle, 2017: Scenario-based hazard trees for depicting resolution of hurricane uncertainty over time.  Natural Hazards Reviews.


    Archer, C.L., B.A. Colle, D. Veron, F. Veron, M. Sienkiewicz, 2016: On the predominance of unstable atmospheric conditions in the marine boundary layer offshore of the U.S. northeastern coast.  J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.,  121, 8869-8885.

    Molthan, A.L., B.A. Colle, D. Stark, and S.E. Yuter, 2016: Comparisons of modeled and observed reflectivity and fall speeds for snowfall of varied riming degree during winter storms on Long Island, NY.  Mon. Wea. Rev.,  144, 4327-4347.

    Li, H., and B. A. Colle, 2016: Future changes in warm season convective storm days over the Northeastern United States using CMIP5 predictions.  J. Climate29, 4327-4345.

    Erickson, M.J., J.J. Charney, and B.A. Colle, 2016: Development of a fire weather index using meteorological observations in the northeast U.S.  J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim55, 389-402.

    Colle, B.A., M.  Sienkiewicz, C. Archer, D. Veron, F. Veron, J. Mak, and W. Kempton, 2016: Meteorological observations for U.S. East Coast offshore wind power: Improving the Mapping and Prediction of Offshore Wind Resources (IMPOWR).  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00253.1.


    Bratton, S.D.,   B.A. Colle, and R.E. Wilson, 2015: Synoptic flow patterns and decadal variations of wind-induced mixing over western Long Island Sound.   J. Geophys. Res.,120, DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023080.

    Ganetis, S.A,   B.A. Colle, 2015: The thermodynamic and microphysical evolution of an intense snowband during the Northeast U.S. blizzard of 8-9 February 2013.   Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 4104-4125.

    Colle, B.A., M. Bowman, K. Roberts, H. Bowman, C. Flagg, J. Kuang, Y. Wng, E. Munsell, and F. Zhang, 2015: Exploring water level sensitivity for Metropolitan New York during Sandy (2012) using ensemble storm surge simulations.   J. Marine Science and Engineering, 3, 428-428.

    Colle, B.A., J.E. Booth, and E. Chang, 2015: A review of historical and future changes of extratropical cyclones and associated impacts along the U.S. East Coast.   Current Climate Change Reports, 1-19.DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0013-7.

    Roberts, K.J.,   B.A. Colle, N. Georgas, and S.B. Munch, 2015: A regression-based approach for cool-season storm surge predictions along the New York/New York Coast.   J. Appl. Meteor. and Clim., 54, 1773-1791.

    Layer, M. and   B. A. Colle, 2015: Climatology and ensemble prediction of non-convective high wind events in the New York City Metropolitan Region.   Wea. Forecasting, 30, 270-294.

    Lombardo, K.,   B.A. Colle, and Z. Zhang, 2015: Evaluation of historical and future precipitation over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic storm track using CMIP5 models.  J. Climate , 28, 451-467.

    Wilson, R.E., S. Bratton, Jindong Wang, and   B.A. Colle, 2015: Evidence for directional wind response in controlling inter-annual variations in duration and areal extent of summertime hypoxia in western Long Island Sound.   Estuaries and Coasts, 38, 1735-1743. DOI 10.1007/s12237-014-9914-2.


    Picca, J.C., D.M. Schultz,   B. A. Colle, S. Ganetis, D.R. Novak, and M. Sienkiewicz, 2014: The value of dual-polarization radar in diagnosing the complex microphysical evolution of an intense snowband.   Bull. Meteor. Soc., 95, 1825-1834.

    Li, H., and   B.A. Colle, 2014: Multidecadal changes in the frequency and ambient conditions of warm season convective storms over the northeastern U.S.   J. Climate, 27, 7285-7300.

    Colle, B.A., D. Stark, and S.E. Yuter, 2014: Surface microphysical observations within East coast winter storms on Long Island.   Mon. Wea. Rev, 142, 3126-3146.

    Souders, M.B.,   B.A. Colle, E. K.-M., Chang, 2014: A description and evaluation of an automated approach for feature-based tracking of Rossby wave packets.   Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 3505-3527.

    Souders, M.B.,   B.A. Colle, E. K.-M., Chang, 2014: The climatology and characteristics of Rossby wave packets using a feature-based tracking technique.   Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 3528-3548.

    Archer, C. L.,   B.A. Colle, L. Delle Monache, M. J. Dvorak, J. Lundquist, B. H. Bailey, P. Beaucage, M. J. Churchfield, A. C. Fitch, B. Kosovic, S. Lee, P. J. Moriarty, H. Simao, R. J. A. M. Stevens, D. Veron, J. Zackhttp, 2014: Meteorology for coastal/offshore wind energy in the United States: Recommendations and research needs for the next 10 years.   Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 515-519.

    Wuebbles, D, G. Meehl, K. Hayhoe, T. Karl, K. Kunkel, B. Santer, M. Wehner,   B. Colle, E. Fischer, R. Fu, A. Goodman, E. Janssen, V. Kharin, H. Lee, W. Li, L. Long, S. Olsen, Z. Pan, A. Seth, J. Sheffield, and L. Sun, 2014: CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate Extremes in the United States.   Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 95, 571-583.

    Maloney, E. D., S. J. Camargo, E. Chang,   B. Colle, R. Fu, K. L. Geil, Q. Hu, X. Jiang, N. Johnson, K. B. Karnauskas, J. Kinter, B. Kirtman, S. Kumar, B. Langenbrunner, K. Lombardo, L. N. Long, A. Mariotti, J. E. Meyerson, K. C. Mo, J. D. Neelin, Z. Pan, R. Seager, Y. Serra, A. Seth, J. Sheffield, J. Stroeve, J. Thibeault, S.-P. Xie, C. Wang, B. Wyman, and M. Zhao, 2014: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments: Part III: Assessment of 21st Century projections.   J. Climate, 27, 2230-2270.

    Hodrefe, C, P. Doraiswamy,   B.A. Colle, K. Demerjian, W. Hao, M. Erickson, M. Souders, and J-Y Ku, 2014: Meteorology, Emissions, and Grid Resolution: Effects on Discrete and Probabilistic Model Performance. In: D. Steyn, P. Builtjes, R. Timmermans (eds.): Air Pollution and Modeling and Its Application XXII, NARA Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, 493-497. Springer Netherlands.


    Sheffield, J., A. Barrett,   B. Colle, R. Fu, K. L. Geil, Q. Hu, J. Kinter, S. Kumar, B. Langenbrunner, K. Lombardo, L. N. Long, E. Maloney, A. Mariotti, J. E.

    Meyerson, K. C. Mo, J. D. Neelin, Z. Pan, A. Ruiz-Barradas, Y. L. Serra, A. Seth, J. M. Thibeault, J. C. Stroeve, 2013: North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century continental and regional climatology.   J. Climate, 26, 9247-9290.

    He, J., M. Zhang, W. Lin,   B. Colle, and A. Vogelmann, 2013: The WRF nested within the CESM: Simulations of a mid-latitude cyclone over the Southern Great Plains.   J Adv. in Modeling Earth Systems. 5, 611-622.

    Lombardo, K, and   B.A. Colle, 2013: Processes controlling the structure and longevity of two quasi-linear convective systems crossing the southern New England coast.   Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3710–3734.

    Zheng, M., K. Chang, and B.A. Colle, 2013: Ensemble sensitivity tools for assessing extratropical cyclone intensity and track predictability.   Wea. Forecasting, 28, 1133–1156.

    Colle, B.A., Z. Zhang, K. Lombardo, P. Liu, E. Chang, and M. Zhang, 2013: Historical evaluation and future prediction in eastern North America and western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models during the cool season.   J. Climate, 26, 6882–6903.

    Stark, D., S.E. Yuter, and   B.A. Colle, 2013: Observed microphysical evolution for two East coast winter storms and the associated snow bands.   Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 2037–2057.

    Renfro, A., K. Cochran, and   B. Colle, 2013: Atmospheric fluxes of 7Be and 210Pb on monthly time-scales and during rainfall events at Stony Brook, New York (USA).   J. Environ. Radioact.., 116, 114-123.

    Lin, Y.,   B.A. Colle, and S. Yuter, 2013: Impact of moisture flux and freezing level on simulated orographic precipitation errors over the Pacific Northwest.   J. of Hydrometeor.   , 14, 140-152.

    Pollina, J.,   B.A. Colle, and J. Charney, 2013: Climatology and meteorological evolution of major wildfire events over the Northeast U.S. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 175–193.

    Colle, B. A.   , K. A. Lombardo, J. Tongue, W. Goodman, and N. Vaz, 2012: Tornadoes in the New York Metropolitan Region: Climatology and multiscale analysis of two events.   Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1326-1348.


    Lombardo, K, and   B.A. Colle, 2012: Ambient conditions associated with the maintenance and decay of quasi-linear convective systems crossing the northeastern U.S. coast.   Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 3805-3819.

    Erickson, M.E.,   B.A. Colle, and J. Charney, 2012: Impact of bias correction type and conditional training on Bayesian model averaging over the northeast United States.   Wea. Forecasting, 27, 1449-1469.

    Molthan, A., and   B.A. Colle, 2012: Comparison of single and double moment microphysics schemes in the simulation of a synoptic-scale snowfall event.   Mon. Wea. Rev.   , 140, 2982-3002.

    Novak, D. and   B.A. Colle, 2012: Diagnosing snowband predictability using a multi-model ensemble system.. Sin   Wea. Forecasting, 27, 565-585.

    Colle, B.A., R.B. Smith, and D. Wesley, 2012: Theory, Observations, and Predictions of Orographic Precipitation. In: Chow, F.K., De Wekker, S.F.J., and B.J. Snyder (eds.): Mountain Weather Research and Forecasting: Recent Progress and Current Challenges, 291-344. Berlin: Springer.


    DiLiberto, T.,   B.A. Colle, N. Georgas, A. Blumberg, and A. Taylor, 2011: Verification of a multiple model storm surge ensemble for the New York Metropolitan Region.,   Wea. Forecasting. 26, 922-939.

    Lombardo K., and   B.A. Colle, 2011: Convective storm structures and ambient conditions associated with severe weather over the Northeast U.S.   Wea. Forecasting.   , 26, 940-956.

    Colle, B. A., and M. E. Charles, 2011: Spatial distribution and evolution of extratropical cyclone errors over North America and adjacent oceans in the NCEP Global Forecast System model.   Wea. Forecasting, 26, 129-149.

    Yuter, S. E., J. Payne, D. Stark,   B.A. Colle, and J. Crouch, 2011: Observational sensitivity study of the temporal and spatial patterns of orographic precipitation for winter storms near Portland, Oregon.   J. Hydrometeor, 12, 329-351.

    Lin, Y., L. Donner, and   B.A. Colle, 2011: Parameterization of riming degree and its impact on ice fall speed using ARM data,   Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 1013–1035.

    Lin, Y., and   B. A. Colle, 2011: A new bulk microphysical scheme that includes varying degree of riming and particle habits.,   Mon. Wea. Rev.   , 139, 1036-1047.

    Murray, J., and   B. Colle, 2011: A climatology of convective storms over the Northeast United States.   Mon. Wea. Rev.   , 139, 992-1012.

    Bowman, M. J.,   B.A. Colle, and H. Bowman, 2011: “Storm surge modeling for the New York City Region, Chapter 5 in   Coastal Adaptation and Flood Risk in Coastal Cities., pg. 76-95. Earthscan Publishing.


    Lombardo, K., and   B.A. Colle, 2010: A climatology of convective structures over the Northeast U.S. and the associated ambient conditions.   Mon. Wea. Rev, 138, 4456–4474.

    Colle, B. A., and D. Novak, 2010: New York Bight jet: Climatology and dynamical evolution.   Mon. Wea. Rev.,138, 2385-2404

    Novak, D., and   B.A. Colle, 2010: Climatology and composite analysis of mesoscale precipitation band formation in the comma head of mid-latitude cyclones.,   Mon. Wea. Rev. 138, 2354-2374.

    Willett, K., F. Pimenta, D. Veron, and   B. Colle, 2010: Electric power from offshore wind via synoptic-scale interconnection.   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.0909075107.

    Colle, B. A., K. Rojowsky, and F. Buonaiuto, 2010: New York City storm surges: Climatology and analysis of the wind and cyclone evolution.   J. Appl. Meteor. and Climatology, 49, 85-100.


    Charles, M., and   B.A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm: Part 1: Comparison of the GFS and NAM models.,   Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1173-1190.

    Charles, M., and   B.A. Colle, 2009: Verification of extratropical cyclones within cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm: Part 2: Evaluation of the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system,   Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1191-1214

    Novak, D.,   B.A. Colle, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2009: The role of moist processes in the formation and evolution of mesoscale snowbands within the comma-head of Northeast U.S. cyclones.   Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2662-2686.

    Lin, Y., and   B.A. Colle, 2009: Observed and Simulated Cloud Microphysics over the Oregon Cascades during the 4-5 December IMPROVE-2 IOP,   Mon. Wea. Rev.   , 137, 1372-1392.

    Olson, J. B., and   B.A. Colle, 2009: Three-dimensional Idealized Simulations of Barrier Jets Along the Southeastern Coast of Alaska. Mon. Wea. Rev.   , 137, 391-413.


    Colle B. A., Lin Y., Medina S., Smull B., 2008: Orographic modification of convection and flow kinematics by the Oregon coastal range and Cascades during IMPROVE-2.   Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3894-3916.

    Colle, B.A., Buonaiuto, F., Bowman, M.J., Wilson, R.E., Flood, R., Hunter, R., Mintz, A., Hill, D., 2008. New York City’s vulnerability to coastal flooding.   Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 89, 829–841.

    Novak, D. and   B.A. Colle, and S. Yuter, 2008: High resolution observations and model simulations of the life cycle of an intense mesoscale snowband.,   Mon. Wea. Rev.   , 136, 1433–1456.

    Colle, B. A., 2008: Two-dimensional idealized simulations of the impact of multiple windward ridges on orographic precipitation,   J. Atmos. Sci.   65, 509–523.

    Bowman, M.J., D. Hill, F. Buonaiuto,   B. Colle, R. Flood, R. Wilson, R. Hunter and J. Wang, 2008. Threats and Responses Associated with Rapid Climate Change in Metropolitan New York. In “Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change”, M. MacCracken, F. Moore and J.C. Topping (eds). Earthscan, London, pp. 327.

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