Cloudy With a 20% Chance of Uncertainty
Recovering TV meteorologist Sara Kobilka shares strategies for communicating uncertainty in weather forecasting.
Morss, R. E., Lazo, J. K., & Demuth, J. L. (2010). Examining the use of weather forecasts in decision scenarios: Results from a US survey with implications for uncertainty communication. Meteorological Applications, 17(2), 149-162.
Broad, K., Leiserowitz, A., Weinkle, J., & Steketee, M. (2007). Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88(5), 651-668. Retrieved Feb 17, 2021
Pliske, R. M., Crandall, B., & Klein, G. (2004). Competence in weather forecasting. Psychological investigations of competence in decision making, 40, 68.
Bica, M., Weinberg, J., & Palen, L. (2020). Achieving Accuracy through Ambiguity: the Interactivity of Risk Communication in Severe Weather Events. Computer Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW), 29(5), 587-623.
Journals of Interest
International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification http://uncertainty-quantification.com/
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society https://journals.ametsoc.org
Risk Analysis https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15396924