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The Observational
Error of Wind Reports from Aircraft | |||
The
purpose of this study was to determine the observational error of wind reports
from aircraft in order to answer two questions: has aircraft wind reporting improved
since its introduction and are there certain methods of reporting that prove to
be more accurate than others? Data from January of the years 1969, 1974, 1979,
1984, 1989, 1994, and 1999 were analyzed to determine the root mean squared error
of data sets that met certain restrictions. Each report originated from N latitude
band due to the simple fact that the majority of flights take place over the mid-latitude
regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Another test was performed to see the effect
on RMSE that would occur if the wind speed of both reports was less than or equal
to 50 m/s rather than 20 m/s. A large increase in RMSE occurred in all regions,
and when studying the results from 1979 (they were graphed using mean squared
error rather than RMSE, which made changes easier to detect), the accuracy was
better in the 0-30 latitude range than the other two bands with both the 20 m/s
and 50 m/s restrictions. This could be explained by the fact that the regions
near the equator lack steering currents as powerful as those in the upper hemispheres,
where jet streams dominate the weather pattern. Due to this, data sets between
30 and 90 degrees North could meet the parameters of the study and yet be measuring
upper level patterns that are extremely different in two areas. However, between
0 and 30 degrees North this would happen less often and therefore the error from
the reports would be relatively lower. Finally, the last test took into consideration
the different types of reporting techniques. There are mainly three different
types of reporting available for planes to utilize: ACARS and ASDAR, which are
automated weather reports, and AIREP reports, which is simply the pilot transmitting
data. Data from 1999 was analyzed, and the RMSE of ACARS reports was the lowest
of all three. ASDAR reports were close behind in accuracy, while AIREP reports
trailed the other two by a considerable amount. There are many explanations for
these results, but perhaps that most obvious and is the simple fact that human
error was added to the process of relaying the weather data. Thus automated weather
reports will most likely continue to be the most accurate and most-widely used
source of weather data. This study was supported by a grant from the Simon's Research
Program. | ||||
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